That "incentives drive behavior" is well-known. Unless you need to make long-term predictions, you probably don't bother mulling the consequences beneath the cliche.
When life compels you to predict outcomes: trot out that tired cliche. Let it run around the track a few times.
If the opportunity cost is high enough, escape distraction, and obsess over what incentives will emerge during the interval of prediction. Once you've figured out which ones will apply, predicting the non-luck parts of the future can be expressed something like:
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linkEconomists
This field exists solely because a group of observant people noticed that they could profit from predicting what will follow from the incentives of a society, government, etc.
You may or may not believe the economists. Judging by how I've allocated the 250 characters in my Twitter bio and the ratio of economists to other sources in my podcast listening history, it would appear that this author is "all in" on incentives earning the 🏆 in the "Understand & Predict" bakeoff.
linkCompeting predictive devices
This author is currently "all in" on incentives being the most effective way to guess what will come to pass. What might the second- and third-most applicable forces be?
"Evolutionary forces" are a strong contender as #2 most applicable tool to successfully prognosticate. But the list of "regularly useful predictors" doesn't seem to be a lot longer?
linkConstrained prediction
More often applied to backwards-prediction than forward-prediction, Bayes & Occam deserve mention if this post is supposed to encapsulate the tools in this CEO's toolbox whenever predictions are required.
"Bayes Theorem" is the gold standard for choosing between two outcomes. If you didn't already know this, you are from a different tribe.
"Occam's Razor" is under-appreciated among the forecasters I encounter.
linkAnyway
As of May 2025, this is the site's newly canonical entry on "prediction tools" and "incentives" (synonyms). There's a lot more to say about the subject, so this entry will hopefully evolve.
On the bright side, even if it remains a WIP stub, thousands of historical thinkers & institutions have already made the case for an "incentive-driven world" more articulately than I ever will.